Prediction: Week One

Here We Go!

Its another NFL season and time to start predicting, again. I love my Steelers but I try not to be a homer and try to look at each game objectively. Now, even if I predict them to lose that doesn't mean I'm not sitting here screaming, rooting for them to make me look like a fool.

So, what do we think of the Patriots and the Steelers match up?

Offensively these two teams are an even match. Brady has his Gronk and Big Ben has his AB. They have backup runners in the back field, since both team's starting backs are suspended. And their offensive lines are very comparable. The difference will be the ways they utilize their other weapons. Who will be more effective Dobson or Wheaton?

Edge: EVEN

The defensive side of the ball is a complete toss up. The Patriots lost Browner, Wilfork and Revis and the Steelers haven't been the Steelers since 2010. This becomes a battle of how the Patriots' defensive backs step up versus how well the young Steeler linebackers take that next step.

Edge: EVEN

Lets be real about their history versus each other. Ignore the overall record (15-12) and the record in Massachusetts (4-4). The Steelers are 3-6 against Tom Brady. The Steelers for some reason can't beat Brady and unfortunately I think its the same here. The Steelers have so many questions and the Patriots are angry and are going to play that way.

Final: Patriots 37 Steelers 31

To Vick or Not To Vick

I've been perusing social media and gathering responses by Steeler fans about the recent addition of Micheal Vick. And I can tell you that I am both amazed and dumbfounded by how hypocritical and over the top some have been. Tweets and Facebook post about Micheal Vick have been blowing up. Those same tweets and post have proclaimed how the Rooney's are losing their touch and this one signing will destroy the entire legacy that has been built in Pittsburgh. What a load of horse shit.

I've been a Steeler fan my entire life. Now, that doesn't make much sense because as a three or four year old you don't really know shit about football let alone the Steelers. So lets use some logic and say that since my first recollection of football was the entire 1994 season. Therefore I've been avidly watching  the Steelers for the last 22 years. Through my entire life the Steelers have always been an upstanding organization who have set the bar when it comes how to deal with players and issues they have, except when its a star quarterback. Or reciever. Or running back.

Before people start blowing off at me about cracking jokes about past incidents or before they start throwing out "never charged" or "acquitted" let me just explain. The Steelers have seen their fair share of incidents and for the most part stick by their players. While everyone is clamoring about Vick lets not forget about those same fans throwing away the Steelers after legal issues from Santonio Holmes, James Harrison, Big Ben and Le'Veon Bell. After all their crimes weren't that bad. Holmes was arrested multiple times including for disorderly conduct, domestic violence and marijuana possession from 2006 to 2008. Harrison for simple assault and criminal mischief stemming from a domestic violence incident in 2008. Or Ben who was accused of sexual assault twice (2008 and 2010).

My point is not to bring up these men as being bad men, they just made stupid choices and had to pay the price for those crimes. My point is that we pick and choose who to burn at the stake and Vick seems to the man attached to the stake. What Vick did doesn't make him a horrible person it makes him a man whose upbringing didn't teach him that what he funded was wrong. In fact to a lot of people they don't see anything wrong with what he was a part of but Vick committed crimes. He paid for those crimes and has been cleared to play since 2009.

You don't have to like him but you've rooted for years for players who have committed horrible crimes against woman. Men who could have killed someone while driving under the influence, ala Donte Stallworth. I'm not saying you have to forgive him, what I'm saying is don't be so hypocritical in your judging of Vick while your wearing your jersey's of these other players.

Day Three Wrap Up

I don't get caught up in all the draft hype like other people. What I mean by that if you listen to fans, coaches and the front office when they talk about draft picks, they are all superstars. Watching press conferences for each player drafted pretty much every year, you hear them talk about how each one is amazing in their own rights. Lets be honest though, your a late round pick for a reason. They have incredible skills but they are not all Pros and most of them their best football days ended when they left college. Keeping that in mind there are some really intriguing picks on day three.

Round 4
Doran Grant - Ohio State - DB
The Steelers grabbed their second corner in the fourth round. This one only needs a pretty simple breakdown. If you are the starting corner on a National Championship NCAA team, then you can play football. Whether it translates to the NFL is another question but it is definitely worth the look. At Ohio State Doran started 30 games, playing in another 24 games. He recorded 146 tackles with nine intercetptions, a sack and 20 broken up passes.

Round 5
Jesse James - Penn State - TE
I can honestly say that is is my favorite pick on the third day. I don't buy the "experts" saying we needed a tight end and we needed one early in the draft. Instead of an instant "upgrade" I felt a project player was needed to develop behind Miller and Spaeth. James fits that to a T. He left college a year early and still has a lot to learn before being an NFL star but he did at Penn State start every game the last two years, making 31 career starts. He caught 78 passes for 1,005 yards and added 11 touchdowns, the most by a Penn State tight end, ever. 

Round 6A
LT Walton - Central Michigan - DL
LT has great size at 6'5 and 319 lbs but he is more of a defensive end than a tackle and we need a tackle, bad. I know the front office is saying he can play both but that remains to be seen. The Steelers don't need more hybrid defensive lineman, we need a nose tackle, a true nose tackle to make this defense work. Maybe Walton can develop into that guy but I don't see it. At Central Michigan he finished his career with  106 tackles, 18.5 for loss with six sacks, three deflected passes and two forced fumbles.

Round 6B
Anthony Chickillo - Miami - DE/LB
What a great work horse pick. He doesn't have the brute strength like James Harrison or the big play moves like Joey Porter did, but he can play. He has a solid motor that just keeps running. Watch his highlights for just five minutes and you can see he never quits and keeps moving. That is the kind of linebacker we could use. He won't start and needs a lot of time to develop but I see a Levon Kirkland style player if he develops right. At Miami he started 47 of 50 games racking up 170 tackles, 25 for loss, 15.5 sacks, two forced fumbles, five recovered and five broken up passes.

Round 7
Gerod Holliman - Louisville - S
Warning, don't get excited by his stat line. Holliman may be a ball hawk and finds a way to pick passes but he is an awful tackler. He struggled in his only year as a starter by making a measly 37 tackles as a Sophomore. Instead of using one more year of eligibility, which he has two, and refining his tackling ability, he decided to enter the draft. Holliman has only started 12 games while playing in only 15 others. He totaled only 63 career tackles, a sack and six broken up passes but he did have an impressive 14 interceptions and 245 return yards off those interceptions.

Overall it was a good draft for the Steelers but we have to be honest that all these guys are not making the roster. If you look at the last ten years of Steelers drafts, removing 2014 since its still close to call, and statistics tell you that few of these guys will make a lasting impact.

In the last four rounds since the 2004 draft the Steelers have taken 22 defensive players with only four still on the roster today and only four others seeing any significant time on the field, mostly on special teams though. On the offensive side of the ball the Steelers have taken 27 offensive players with four still on the roster today and only seven others seeing any significant playing time.

Personally I think the players with the most upside are Anthony Chickillo and Jesse James but Doran Grant could be a long lasting player as well. But hey, just my opinion.

Sammie Coates

I know there is some uncertainty with the receiver position especially with Antonio Brown's contract issues but a third round pick for a receiver? Why not just waste another pick on an undersized return man? I don't get it. I know he has some incredible intangibles, but he has a tendency to drop the ball, Emmanuel Sanders anyone? And receiver is not exactly a huge hole for us. Its not like we need to shore up and entire defense.

I'm not saying Coates isn't a good football player because he is. He has great size at 6'1 212 lbs. He runs the 40 in 4.43 and has an impressive vertical, but why him and why grab a receiver in the 3rd round? The Steelers have Antonio Bryant, still under contract for three more years, Markus Wheaton, who was drafted in the 3rd round only two years ago, and the incredibly talented Martavias Bryant, who was a fourth round pick last year.

The pick just doesn't make sense to me for the third round. So, are you giving up on Wheaton already? Did you just draft a #4 receiver? Who are you dumping off to give him a shot to play?

I'm confused when there were some great players that could have shored up our defense including Carl Davis (Iowa), who went to Baltimore, or Xavier Cooper (Washington State), who went to Cleveland. There was also good tight ends like Jeff Heuerman (Ohio State) that could have been groomed to take Heath's place. This pick, like I said, reminds me a ton of the Dri Archer pick from last year, wasting a pick on something you don't really need when you have glaring holes.

I have faith in this front office but this pick is just a big question mark. I hope the pass on Davis and Cooper doesn't come back to bite us in the ass.

Senquez Golson

Well, my projected pick, Jordan Phillips, went off the board to the Dolphins but what a pick in its place. Senquez Golson out of Ole Miss is a great pick. He's not a big guy but forget the fact that he is only 5'9 because he is the best zone corner in the entire draft and thats something. He has an incredible ability to support the run, which is something we desperately need and has great top end speed.

Senquez is no slouch. He was one of the best players in the best conference in all of football, the SEC. He sealed the victory against #1 Alabama with an interception in the back of the end zone and being a four year guy at Ole Miss, he has valuable maturity and experience. All these factors make him a really great pick for the Steelers. 

He should be able to step in and start right away and instantly upgrade our secondary.

Day Two Projections

The first day of the draft is in the books and we are rolling towards the second and third rounds today. The Steelers still have obvious needs at safety and corner but more improvements are needed on the front seven. Even with the drafting of Bud Dupree out of Kentucky the Steelers still have to improve the pass rush to help out our young and struggling secondary.

The second round pick (56th overall) will have most fans calmouring for a defensive back but I'm unsure it will happen here. The problem is the next tier of corners, Rowe, Williams and Collins to name a few, will most likely be gone by the time the Steelers pick. I doubt we will reach for a corner that we could most likely grab in the third round either. Like it or not its like I said yesterday, the Steelers will draft pass rush over pass coverage.

Jordan Phillips from Oklahoma makes sense the most sense to me here at 56. Now, before everyone starts screaming about the secondary remember for our defense to run fluid and with optimal efficiency we need a solid nose tackle. And Jordan is the best of the very few pure nose tackles in this draft. Casey Hampton's ability to cover multiple gaps was the reason our defense looked so good. It was impossible for any team to cover that line (Keisel, Hampton and Smith) with just five guys and a guy like Jordan Phillips could bring that back to help out our linebackers. Oh, yeah, being 6'6 and 334 lbs helps.

This would be the second year in a row that we've taken a defensive lineman in the second round, Stephon Tuitt 46th last year, but Tuitt is not a nose tackle. We don't have a true nose tackle and while there have been splashes from McCullers, McClendon and Thomas, they are not the answer up front. We need a big man to cover two gaps so that our linebackers can run free. Phillips is that guy. Keep in mind if there is a premium corner left at 56, I bet the Steelers will snatch them up instead.

With the pick in the third round (87th overall) I think they finally grab a corner. Keep in mind most corners and safeties available in these mid rounds are right around the same skill level so there isn't a huge drop off, instead your making guesses based on whether they are pro ready and what kind of potential they have. With this pick I'm a huge fan of the idea of drafting Steven Nelson from Oregon State.

Steven isn't as big as other corners in this draft but that doesn't mean he is smaller than the league average. The best thing about him is his experience. He worked his way up from the junior college ranks to playing for a great program in a major NCAA conference.

Steven's spent two years at College of the Sequoias tallying 71 tackles and six interceptions before transferring to Oregon State. In his two years there he anchored the Beaver defense totaling 122 tackles with eight interceptions. He literally has earned everything he has, worked hard for it and I think could be an instant upgrade on the corner for us.

This is Pittsburgh and we need bring your lunch pail to work type players. No boys permitted.

First Round Wrap Up

Leading up to the draft I seen plenty of social media post by Steeler fans calling for a corner or safety. I read them all quietly to myself dismissing the idea, not because I thought it was a bad idea, but because Pittsburgh historically will worry about their pass rush over pass coverage. I mean, after all we are a franchise built on linebacker and Bud Dupree fits our team.

If you think you need first or second rounders in the secondary to win championships just look at the Steelers over the last ten years and you can see the evidence to the contrary. During our memorable Super Bowl XL run, only Troy Polamalu was drafted during the first two rounds. Chris Hope (3rd round 94th overall), Ike Taylor (4th round 125th overall) and Deshea Townsend (4th round 117th overall) were all later round guys who played well because our front seven didn't leave them out to dry. During the next run, Super Bowl XLIII, Troy was joined by second round pick, Bryant McFadden (62nd overall) and other than that Ike Taylor (yep, fourth rounder) and Ryan Clark (former undrafted rookie) finished the secondary. Two championships, only one first rounder and one second rounder.

So, why were these late round guys so successful? Pass rush.

Just look at the amazing front seven during those championship years. Von Olehoffen, Keisel, Porter, Harrison, Hampton Farrior and the list goes on and on.

So, what changed? Less than stellar drafts.

Over the last five years, not counting 2014, we have picked 44 times with 13 of those being front seven guys. Only seven of those spent multiple years with the Steelers and only one is still with the team. These have been atrocious drafts for the front seven and you can't expect to win titles with a poor pass rush. If you don't draft well up front then you can't keep pressure on the opposing quarterback and thus give them more time for them to pick apart a weaker secondary.

Bud Dupree looks the part. He is much bigger than our last two first rounders, Jarvis Jones (6'2 245 lbs) and Ryan Shazier (6'1 237 lbs), as he stands 6'4 and weighs a whopping 269 lbs. Dupree's play reminds me of Jason Gildon and who wouldn't want that kind of production? Gildon's 77 sacks are the most in franchise history. He is big and deceptively fast (4.56 40 yard dash) with exception character, something we should never underestimate.

The biggest thing to remember is that there are tons of defensive backs in this draft. If the Steelers don't grab some in the second or third rounds, I'd be shocked. The Steelers will continue, until hell freezes over, to fix their pass rush because lets face it, a Steelers team without a great pass rush just isn't a Steelers team.

Defense wins championships. Bud Dupree for President.

2015

It's literally been one year since I've posted to this site. The companies that I run have grown so much and so much extra work has been added to me that I just couldn't update consistently. With the growth though I was able to bring someone on to help me out, which has freed up time. Hence me posting again.

Now, its really close to the draft, tomorrow is round one actually, but you have to get back into it at some point and why not today. I'm really excited about this draft, as I always am. There is a sense of new hope for aspects of our game that our boys in black and gold need to work on and that is always exciting to know that we could fix it all, or crash and burn.

So, what is my opinion about our draft needs?

It shocks me as a Steeler fan to say this, but we need defense. Our secondary has been in rabbles for years with our linebackers and defensive line not much better. We've signed some really intriguing players from the CFL ala Shawn Lemon and Ian Wild but there are a lot of holes to fill. This draft is full of pass rushers and defensive backs, which bodes well for us.While there is always a need for something offensive, a new reciever and another young running back would be nice, but could be grabbed in later rounds. I hope that we stick to the defensive side of the ball and rebuild what we've always been known for in the Burgh.